Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 22–25% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AS 400 SEA 16:06 → SBA 18:38 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time Riskiest AS 468 SEA 15:30 → SBA 18:04 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AS 400 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 16:06	SBA 18:38	22%	4%	0.9%	76%
AS 468 Alaska	SEA 15:30	SBA 18:04	25%	4%	0.9%	no record
AS 2142 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SEA 07:40	SBA 10:14	16%	0%	0.0%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON