Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 21 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 3626 at 06:45 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–24%.

Safest bet that day WN 3626 SEA 06:45 → SJC 08:55 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AS 335 SEA 11:08 → SJC 13:20 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3626 Southwest Flight history →	SEA 06:45	SJC 08:55	5%	1%	0.2%	94%
WN 3451 Southwest	SEA 07:15	SJC 09:31	9%	2%	0.2%	no record
AS 1448 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 07:07	SJC 09:23	10%	2%	0.6%	98%
DL 3736 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 08:30	SJC 10:55	12%	4%	0.7%	91%
AS 1341 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 07:13	SJC 09:26	12%	2%	0.6%	92%
DL 3956 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 20:30	SJC 22:48	16%	6%	0.6%	79%
DL 3789 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 11:45	SJC 14:15	18%	5%	0.6%	84%
DL 3897 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 14:45	SJC 17:05	18%	5%	0.6%	85%
DL 4100 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 17:50	SJC 20:14	18%	6%	0.6%	87%
OO 168 SkyWest	SEA 11:58	SJC 14:18	19%	5%	0.6%	no record
AS 521 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 13:39	SJC 15:53	22%	3%	0.7%	87%
WN 2040 Southwest Flight history →	SEA 20:10	SJC 22:30	22%	7%	0.5%	35%
WN 3766 Southwest	SEA 12:25	SJC 14:40	23%	4%	0.5%	no record
AS 1366 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 14:18	SJC 16:32	23%	4%	0.7%	89%worse than usual
WN 4960 Southwest Flight history →	SEA 13:30	SJC 15:55	24%	5%	0.5%	35%
AS 1303 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 17:45	SJC 19:59	24%	4%	0.6%	83%
AS 539 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 17:45	SJC 20:00	24%	4%	0.6%	79%
AS 658 Alaska	SEA 10:56	SJC 13:10	26%	4%	0.7%	no record
AS 657 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 15:48	SJC 18:02	28%	4%	0.7%	77%
AS 319 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 15:42	SJC 17:53	31%	4%	0.7%	51%
AS 335 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 11:08	SJC 13:20	33%	4%	0.7%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON