Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 1128 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–30%.

Safest bet that day DL 1128 SEA 05:30 → SLC 08:30 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AS 733 SEA 11:51 → SLC 15:04 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1128 Delta Flight history →	SEA 05:30	SLC 08:30	7%	3%	0.6%	94%
DL 2858 Delta Flight history →	SEA 07:15	SLC 10:26	15%	4%	0.6%	96%worse than usual
DL 1016 Delta Flight history →	SEA 09:30	SLC 12:36	17%	5%	0.6%	90%
AS 430 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 07:16	SLC 10:20	18%	4%	0.6%	95%worse than usual
DL 1120 Delta Flight history →	SEA 13:30	SLC 16:40	19%	4%	0.6%	83%
DL 1239 Delta Flight history →	SEA 19:50	SLC 22:55	19%	4%	0.6%	82%
DL 1265 Delta Flight history →	SEA 11:09	SLC 14:15	20%	3%	0.6%	86%
DL 1165 Delta Flight history →	SEA 17:59	SLC 21:06	22%	4%	0.6%	81%
AS 373 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 16:47	SLC 19:50	22%	4%	0.6%	80%
AS 360 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 08:48	SLC 11:55	25%	5%	0.6%	88%worse than usual
AS 3298 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 19:07	SLC 22:14	27%	8%	0.5%	79%
AS 1459 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 20:33	SLC 23:36	30%	6%	0.6%	44%
AS 368 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 14:45	SLC 17:48	30%	5%	0.6%	66%
AS 733 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 11:51	SLC 15:04	37%	4%	0.6%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON