Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:09 am at Seattle); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: United via Denver, leaving 12:50, is the safest bet: 72% chance of reaching Hailey on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Hailey on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Hailey is 1 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SEA 12:50 → DEN 16:42UA 1351	2h 43m Denver	DEN 19:25 → SUN 21:26UA 5734 · flown by SkyWest	7h 36m	96%	72%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	SEA 14:33 → DEN 18:22UA 333	1h 03m Denver	DEN 19:25 → SUN 21:26UA 5734 · flown by SkyWest	5h 53m	74%	55%
United Details →	SEA 15:33 → SFO 17:47UA 2866	1h 08m San Francisco	SFO 18:55 → SUN 21:51UA 5986 · flown by SkyWest	5h 18m	70%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON