tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:22 am at Seattle)
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops today

All 1 nonstop →
AS 2217 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record SEA 11:52 TUL 17:32 25% 8% 0.0% 75%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tulsa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tulsa is 2 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601 1h 21m Denver DEN 10:04 → TUL 12:59UA 5315 · flown by SkyWest 5h 59m 99% 87%
SouthwestDetails → SEA 05:15 → DEN 08:50WN 3615 1h 30m Denver DEN 10:20 → TUL 13:05WN 1762 5h 50m 95% 86%
UnitedDetails → SEA 11:55 → IAH 18:35UA 2293 3h 07m Houston IAH 21:42 → TUL 23:15UA 6179 · flown by Mesa 9h 20m 100% 84%
UnitedDetails → SEA 05:00 → IAH 11:21UA 2748 3h 14m Houston IAH 14:35 → TUL 16:15UA 6270 · flown by Mesa 9h 15m 99% 83%
SouthwestDetails → SEA 11:45 → MDW 18:00WN 3081 3h 30m Chicago MDW 21:30 → TUL 23:26WN 301 9h 41m 99% 83%
SouthwestDetails → SEA 06:30 → PHX 09:15WN 3001 2h 29m Phoenix PHX 11:44 → TUL 16:10WN 590 7h 40m 100% 81%
AmericanDetails → SEA 05:05 → DFW 11:02AA 2748 2h 55m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:57 → TUL 15:16AA 5420 · flown by PSA 8h 11m 98% 77%
UnitedDetails → SEA 14:33 → DEN 18:22UA 333 2h 33m Denver DEN 20:55 → TUL 23:47UA 4712 · flown by SkyWest 7h 14m 98% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → SEA 14:35 → DEN 18:20WN 3617 1h 10m Denver DEN 19:30 → TUL 22:14WN 2291 5h 39m 75% 59%
SouthwestDetails → SEA 15:05 → DAL 21:00WN 1404 55m Dallas DAL 21:55 → TUL 23:14WN 1477 6h 09m 65% 52%
AmericanDetails → SEA 13:57 → DFW 20:04AA 717 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:50 → TUL 22:07AA 2014 6h 10m 48% 32%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON