Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 12 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 1540 at 08:03 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–30%.

Safest bet that day UA 1540 FLL 08:03 → SFO 11:01 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 2035 MIA 17:15 → SFO 20:20 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1540 United Flight history →	FLL 08:03	SFO 11:01	7%	3%	0.6%	94%
UA 1513 United	FLL 08:01	SFO 11:03	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
B6 577 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 06:04	SFO 08:54	8%	3%	0.7%	88%
UA 1257 United Flight history →	MIA 08:00	SFO 11:03	9%	3%	0.6%	90%
AA 2565 American Flight history →	MIA 07:20	SFO 10:24	11%	4%	0.7%	93%
B6 377 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 07:00	SFO 09:48	11%	4%	0.7%	88%
AA 1934 American	MIA 07:15	SFO 10:13	12%	5%	0.7%	no record
B6 277 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:55	SFO 23:51	24%	14%	0.7%	62%
UA 2810 United Flight history →	MIA 18:35	SFO 21:41	24%	9%	0.7%	22%
AA 2426 American Flight history →	MIA 20:35	SFO 23:33	28%	9%	0.7%	56%
AA 2799 American Flight history →	MIA 19:30	SFO 22:34	28%	10%	0.7%	33%
AA 2035 American Flight history →	MIA 17:15	SFO 20:20	30%	10%	0.7%	53%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	MIA 06:55 → SLC 09:56DL 2021	1h 44m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:40 → SJC 12:35DL 1254	8h 40m	99%	88%
Southwest Details →	FLL 05:00 → HOU 06:30WN 1861	1h 05m Houston	HOU 07:35 → OAK 09:30WN 2056	7h 30m	96%	87%
United Details →	MIA 06:30 → IAH 08:24UA 2606	1h 36m Houston	IAH 10:00 → SJC 12:03UA 1882	8h 33m	100%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON