Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 32 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 1866 at 05:55 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–35%.

Safest bet that day WN 1866 FLL 05:55 → MDW 07:55 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest WN 1870 FLL 18:20 → MDW 20:25 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 39% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1866 Southwest Flight history →	FLL 05:55	MDW 07:55	4%	1%	0.6%	96%
UA 752 United Flight history →	FLL 07:02	ORD 09:30	5%	2%	0.6%	89%
UA 2809 United	FLL 06:57	ORD 09:24	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 4979 Southwest	FLL 06:38	MDW 08:51	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 3039 Southwest	MIA 06:43	MDW 08:54	7%	1%	0.6%	no record
AA 581 American Flight history →	MIA 06:40	ORD 09:08	7%	3%	0.6%	87%
AA 3169 American	FLL 07:05	ORD 09:30	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 1431 American Flight history →	MIA 08:29	ORD 11:00	8%	3%	0.6%	90%
AA 2491 American	MIA 05:20	ORD 07:47	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 1755 United Flight history →	FLL 12:26	ORD 14:55	10%	3%	0.6%	87%
WN 1869 Southwest Flight history →	FLL 10:15	MDW 12:15	10%	2%	0.5%	80%
UA 1983 United Flight history →	MIA 12:30	ORD 15:13	12%	5%	0.6%	82%
AA 2910 American Flight history →	MIA 12:22	ORD 14:58	13%	6%	0.6%	73%
UA 651 United Flight history →	FLL 19:37	ORD 22:20	13%	6%	0.6%	66%
AA 1851 American Flight history →	FLL 12:15	ORD 14:46	14%	4%	0.6%	73%
UA 403 United Flight history →	FLL 16:20	ORD 19:00	16%	5%	0.6%	52%
F9 2206 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 09:43	ORD 12:15	16%	6%	0.8%	69%
AA 2323 American Flight history →	MIA 21:50	ORD 00:26	17%	5%	0.7%	63%
AA 2247 American Flight history →	MIA 14:37	ORD 17:18	18%	6%	0.7%	67%
AA 2269 American Flight history →	PBI 13:05	ORD 15:29	18%	5%	0.7%	78%
AA 1881 American Flight history →	MIA 20:54	ORD 23:30	20%	8%	0.7%	53%
UA 2106 United Flight history →	MIA 16:10	ORD 18:53	21%	7%	0.6%	59%
B6 663 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 11:00	ORD 13:39	22%	7%	0.8%	71%
AA 3304 American Flight history →	MIA 19:21	ORD 22:01	22%	9%	0.7%	49%
UA 312 United Flight history →	PBI 15:58	ORD 18:32	23%	8%	0.7%	62%
UA 2311 United Flight history →	MIA 17:32	ORD 20:13	25%	8%	0.6%	34%
AA 2275 American Flight history →	PBI 18:54	ORD 21:29	25%	8%	0.9%	69%
AA 3056 American Flight history →	MIA 17:00	ORD 19:53	25%	9%	0.7%	60%
WN 2930 Southwest Flight history →	MIA 14:50	MDW 17:00	28%	6%	0.6%	54%
B6 863 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 21:05	ORD 23:44	31%	12%	0.8%	48%
AA 2440 American Flight history →	FLL 17:33	ORD 20:16	31%	8%	0.7%	32%
WN 1870 Southwest Flight history →	FLL 18:20	MDW 20:25	35%	9%	0.6%	39%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON