Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 28 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 1861 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 1861 FLL 05:00 → HOU 06:30 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest F9 1495 FLL 12:56 → IAH 14:50 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 49% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1861 Southwest Flight history →	FLL 05:00	HOU 06:30	6%	1%	0.6%	83%
WN 2705 Southwest	FLL 05:20	HOU 06:57	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 2314 United Flight history →	FLL 07:00	IAH 08:45	7%	3%	0.6%	97%
WN 3109 Southwest	MIA 05:20	HOU 06:57	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 2606 United Flight history →	MIA 06:30	IAH 08:24	8%	4%	0.6%	100%
WN 2927 Southwest Flight history →	MIA 05:10	HOU 06:45	8%	2%	0.6%	81%
UA 2417 United Flight history →	MIA 08:48	IAH 10:42	10%	5%	0.6%	85%
UA 722 United Flight history →	FLL 09:00	IAH 10:45	10%	3%	0.6%	90%
UA 699 United Flight history →	FLL 11:19	IAH 13:18	11%	3%	0.6%	96%
UA 470 United Flight history →	MIA 12:29	IAH 14:23	13%	6%	0.6%	87%
UA 2162 United Flight history →	FLL 13:10	IAH 15:00	13%	3%	0.6%	84%
UA 2474 United Flight history →	FLL 19:13	IAH 21:09	14%	5%	0.6%	88%
UA 2724 United Flight history →	FLL 15:14	IAH 17:10	15%	4%	0.6%	78%
AA 3100 American	MIA 06:58	IAH 08:41	15%	4%	0.9%	no record
UA 1216 United Flight history →	MIA 16:53	IAH 18:56	15%	8%	0.6%	74%
AA 603 American Flight history →	MIA 07:00	IAH 08:50	15%	5%	0.9%	83%
UA 1696 United Flight history →	FLL 17:00	IAH 18:56	16%	4%	0.6%	79%
B6 2179 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 09:45	IAH 11:47	21%	6%	0.7%	81%
F9 1067 Frontier Flight history →	MIA 11:28	IAH 13:34	22%	9%	0.9%	85%
UA 1752 United Flight history →	PBI 17:05	IAH 18:59	23%	7%	0.8%	68%
B6 2379 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 13:45	IAH 15:47	28%	10%	0.7%	73%
AA 1931 American Flight history →	MIA 15:30	IAH 17:22	28%	8%	0.8%	59%
AA 2541 American Flight history →	MIA 19:42	IAH 21:33	30%	9%	0.9%	65%
WN 4230 Southwest Flight history →	FLL 17:35	HOU 19:15	30%	6%	0.5%	42%
B6 2779 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 21:00	IAH 23:02	30%	13%	0.7%	45%
AA 2230 American Flight history →	MIA 22:15	IAH 23:59	30%	8%	0.9%	70%
WN 4583 Southwest Flight history →	FLL 20:10	HOU 21:45	33%	6%	0.5%	30%
F9 1495 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 12:56	IAH 14:50	39%	12%	0.8%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON