Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 15 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 800 at 07:53 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–31%.

Safest bet that day DL 800 FLL 07:53 → LAX 10:05 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest B6 101 FLL 18:35 → LAX 21:00 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 800 Delta Flight history →	FLL 07:53	LAX 10:05	8%	2%	0.7%	88%
AA 713 American Flight history →	MIA 07:07	LAX 09:34	11%	3%	0.6%	89%
AA 843 American Flight history →	MIA 08:35	LAX 11:02	13%	3%	0.6%	90%
B6 1301 JetBlue	FLL 07:03	LAX 09:37	13%	3%	0.7%	no record
B6 1201 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 06:25	LAX 08:39	14%	3%	0.7%	87%
B6 2801 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 09:15	LAX 11:33	16%	4%	0.7%	82%
B6 1401 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 11:00	LAX 13:20	19%	6%	0.7%	69%
DL 450 Delta Flight history →	MIA 19:17	LAX 21:49	22%	7%	0.7%	84%
AA 778 American Flight history →	MIA 14:25	LAX 16:52	23%	9%	0.6%	68%
AA 669 American Flight history →	MIA 22:20	LAX 00:48	25%	10%	0.7%	56%
AA 315 American Flight history →	MIA 16:00	LAX 18:27	27%	11%	0.7%	74%
AA 2953 American Flight history →	MIA 17:30	LAX 19:58	28%	11%	0.7%	57%
B6 2501 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 21:35	LAX 23:58	28%	13%	0.8%	71%
AA 3328 American Flight history →	MIA 20:10	LAX 22:41	30%	11%	0.7%	64%
B6 101 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 18:35	LAX 21:00	31%	13%	0.7%	72%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	FLL 05:00 → HOU 06:30WN 1861	1h 15m Houston	HOU 07:45 → LGB 09:00WN 2019	7h 00m	97%	88%
United Details →	FLL 08:00 → DEN 10:18UA 1311	1h 07m Denver	DEN 11:25 → ONT 12:47UA 430	7h 47m	97%	87%
United Details →	MIA 06:30 → IAH 08:24UA 2606	1h 06m Houston	IAH 09:30 → SNA 10:59UA 1383	7h 29m	100%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON