Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 17 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 4824 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–39%.

Safest bet that day WN 4824 FLL 06:10 → MCO 07:15 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest AA 2147 MIA 17:34 → MCO 18:58 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4824 Southwest Flight history →	FLL 06:10	MCO 07:15	3%	1%	0.8%	96%
WN 3083 Southwest Flight history →	PBI 06:10	MCO 07:10	4%	2%	0.8%	98%
WN 1924 Southwest	FLL 07:11	MCO 08:18	4%	1%	0.8%	no record
WN 2693 Southwest	MIA 07:10	MCO 08:18	7%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 4086 Southwest Flight history →	MIA 05:25	MCO 06:30	9%	3%	0.7%	96%
AA 1693 American Flight history →	MIA 06:41	MCO 07:52	11%	5%	1.6%	97%
AA 2090 American Flight history →	MIA 07:35	MCO 08:50	11%	5%	1.9%	90%
AA 1712 American Flight history →	MIA 09:06	MCO 10:22	14%	5%	1.3%	88%
B6 2548 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 10:00	MCO 11:08	14%	5%	0.9%	76%
AA 1652 American	MIA 08:25	MCO 09:35	16%	5%	1.6%	no record
AA 2092 American Flight history →	MIA 13:40	MCO 14:59	23%	10%	1.3%	69%
B6 1948 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:59	MCO 22:09	33%	16%	1.9%	64%
AA 1700 American Flight history →	MIA 20:50	MCO 22:08	33%	12%	1.3%	56%
AA 2072 American Flight history →	MIA 16:29	MCO 17:52	33%	16%	1.6%	52%
AA 1813 American Flight history →	MIA 22:49	MCO 23:59	35%	11%	1.3%	50%
AA 2803 American Flight history →	MIA 19:19	MCO 20:38	37%	14%	1.3%	60%
AA 2147 American Flight history →	MIA 17:34	MCO 18:58	39%	16%	1.3%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON