Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:52 am at San Francisco); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 26% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


UA 737 United Flight history →	SFO 18:48	ABQ 22:25	26%	6%	0.2%	76%
UA 1597 United	SFO 12:22	ABQ 15:13	26%	6%	0.2%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Albuquerque on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Albuquerque is 1 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SFO 14:20 → DEN 18:11UA 1596	3h 00m Denver	DEN 21:11 → ABQ 22:44UA 4761 · flown by SkyWest	7h 24m	98%	72%
United Details →	SFO 12:43 → DEN 16:35UA 540	2h 45m Denver	DEN 19:20 → ABQ 20:44UA 484	7h 01m	96%	71%
Southwest Details →	SFO 13:20 → LAS 15:00WN 3644	3h 40m Las Vegas	LAS 18:40 → ABQ 21:16WN 4498	6h 56m	100%	70%
Southwest Details →	SFO 14:35 → DEN 18:10WN 3641	3h 11m Denver	DEN 21:21 → ABQ 22:46WN 1784	7h 11m	97%	68%
Delta Details →	SFO 16:39 → LAX 18:13DL 2267	2h 34m Los Angeles	LAX 20:47 → ABQ 23:48DL 4098 · flown by SkyWest	6h 09m	95%	66%
Southwest Details →	SFO 13:35 → PHX 15:45WN 4237	2h 45m Phoenix	PHX 18:30 → ABQ 20:50WN 3346	6h 15m	100%	65%
American Details →	SFO 16:04 → LAX 17:45AA 6221 · flown by SkyWest	2h 23m Los Angeles	LAX 20:08 → ABQ 23:09AA 6515 · flown by SkyWest	6h 05m	94%	63%
Southwest Details →	SFO 15:45 → LAS 17:25WN 1288	2h 00m Las Vegas	LAS 19:25 → ABQ 21:55WN 4074	5h 10m	88%	62%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	SFO 18:55 → PHX 21:00AA 2544	46m Phoenix	PHX 21:46 → ABQ 23:59AA 3159	4h 04m	52%	32%
Alaska Details →	SFO 16:21 → SEA 18:21AS 68	1h 12m Seattle	SEA 19:33 → ABQ 23:24AS 343	6h 03m	49%	30%
American Details →	SFO 14:03 → DFW 19:59AA 2387	57m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:56 → ABQ 21:59AA 1321	6h 56m	51%	29%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON