Today: UA 5626 at 21:22 is the safest bet, 31% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 33–45%.

Safest bet today UA 5626 SFO 21:22 → ACV 22:51 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time Riskiest UA 4708 SFO 10:15 → ACV 11:42 · 45% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Against a calm day 36% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 29% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5626 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 21:22	ACV 22:51	31%	16%	3.6%	78%
UA 4695 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 22:35	ACV 23:59	33%	16%	3.2%	74%
UA 5480 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 16:31	ACV 18:03	35%	8%	3.0%	73%
UA 2022 United	SFO 18:59	ACV 20:22	35%	8%	4.4%	no record
UA 4715 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 13:53	ACV 15:11	38%	11%	2.7%	78%worse than usual
UA 4708 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 10:15	ACV 11:42	45%	19%	3.1%	71%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON