Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 10:18 am at San Francisco)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 38%, against 24% on a calm day. Safest: UA 5711 at 16:25, 38%.

Nonstops today


UA 5711 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 16:25	ASE 19:55	38%	15%	0.9%	55%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Aspen on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Aspen is 1 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SFO 12:43 → DEN 16:35UA 540	3h 50m Denver	DEN 20:25 → ASE 21:26UA 5781 · flown by SkyWest	7h 43m	98%	76%
United Details →	SFO 10:40 → DEN 14:23UA 1604	3h 02m Denver	DEN 17:25 → ASE 18:29UA 5775 · flown by SkyWest	6h 49m	99%	74%
Delta Details →	SFO 11:45 → LAX 13:17DL 1715	3h 55m Los Angeles	LAX 17:12 → ASE 20:25DL 3704 · flown by SkyWest	7h 40m	98%	68%
United Details →	SFO 12:15 → LAX 13:55UA 1506	3h 58m Los Angeles	LAX 17:53 → ASE 21:19UA 5786 · flown by SkyWest	8h 04m	98%	67%
American Details →	SFO 11:24 → DFW 17:14AA 1849	1h 38m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:52 → ASE 20:17AA 6419 · flown by SkyWest	7h 53m	83%	61%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	SFO 12:00 → ORD 18:35UA 2317	1h 12m Chicago	ORD 19:47 → ASE 22:00UA 5254 · flown by SkyWest	9h 00m	66%	48%
United Details →	SFO 14:20 → DEN 18:11UA 1596	59m Denver	DEN 19:10 → ASE 20:11UA 5779 · flown by SkyWest	4h 51m	63%	45%
United Details →	SFO 12:43 → DEN 16:35UA 540	50m Denver	DEN 17:25 → ASE 18:29UA 5775 · flown by SkyWest	4h 46m	47%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON