Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 570 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–46%.

Safest bet that day DL 570 SFO 06:00 → ATL 13:44 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest F9 1448 SFO 23:00 → ATL 07:07 · 46% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 570 Delta Flight history →	SFO 06:00	ATL 13:44	6%	2%	0.7%	93%
DL 640 Delta Flight history →	SFO 07:50	ATL 15:32	8%	2%	0.7%	90%
DL 517 Delta Flight history →	SFO 21:56	ATL 05:37	13%	3%	0.7%	70%
DL 724 Delta Flight history →	SFO 16:05	ATL 00:02	14%	6%	0.8%	67%
UA 1896 United	SFO 09:00	ATL 16:55	16%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1603 United Flight history →	SFO 21:20	ATL 05:20	16%	3%	0.6%	85%
DL 495 Delta Flight history →	SFO 22:59	ATL 06:40	16%	4%	0.7%	71%
DL 690 Delta Flight history →	SFO 23:59	ATL 07:40	16%	3%	0.7%	72%
DL 693 Delta Flight history →	SFO 11:38	ATL 19:27	18%	5%	0.8%	83%
DL 531 Delta Flight history →	SFO 14:00	ATL 21:49	19%	5%	0.8%	78%
UA 702 United Flight history →	SFO 10:51	ATL 18:35	23%	5%	0.6%	86%
F9 1448 Frontier Flight history →	SFO 23:00	ATL 07:07	46%	14%	1.6%	61%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SFO 05:50 → SLC 08:40DL 1331	1h 15m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:55 → ATL 15:39DL 835	6h 49m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	SFO 00:35 → MSP 06:09DL 2789	51m Minneapolis	MSP 07:00 → ATL 10:32DL 1039	6h 57m	88%	80%
Delta Details →	SFO 19:24 → SLC 22:14DL 2652	1h 21m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:35 → ATL 05:14 +1DL 912	6h 50m	90%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON