Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:18 am at San Francisco); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 13 nonstops

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 35%, against 25% on a calm day. Safest: UA 2332 at 17:21, 20%.

Safest bet today UA 2332 SFO 17:21 → AUS 23:04 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest WN 3633 SFO 12:50 → AUS 18:20 · 52% chance 15+ min late · usually 12% on time

Weather 35% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 25% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


UA 2332 United Flight history →	SFO 17:21	AUS 23:04	20%	6%	0.7%	87%
UA 2126 United Flight history →	SFO 18:27	AUS 00:13	22%	7%	0.7%	81%
UA 1326 United Flight history →	SFO 08:50	AUS 14:39	24%	7%	0.6%	80%
UA 1107 United Flight history →	SFO 08:37	AUS 14:31	25%	6%	0.6%	98%worse than usual
UA 2150 United	SFO 16:30	AUS 22:12	26%	7%	0.7%	no record
DL 1077 Delta Flight history →	SFO 17:59	AUS 23:32	27%	7%	0.7%	47%
DL 381 Delta Flight history →	SFO 09:49	AUS 15:36	37%	11%	1.0%	69%
UA 2432 United	SFO 11:01	AUS 16:46	39%	12%	0.5%	no record
UA 1116 United Flight history →	SFO 13:20	AUS 19:05	39%	14%	0.5%	81%worse than usual
WN 3288 Southwest	SFO 10:32	AUS 16:04	47%	17%	0.3%	no record
WN 4227 Southwest Flight history →	SFO 10:10	AUS 15:45	48%	15%	0.3%	56%
WN 335 Southwest	SFO 13:55	AUS 19:26	51%	19%	0.3%	no record
WN 3633 Southwest Flight history →	SFO 12:50	AUS 18:20	52%	18%	0.3%	12%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	SFO 05:00 → LAS 06:35WN 4231	50m Las Vegas	LAS 07:25 → AUS 12:08WN 1651	5h 08m	95%	77%
Southwest Details →	SFO 05:30 → PHX 07:30WN 4145	55m Phoenix	PHX 08:25 → AUS 12:45WN 4744	5h 15m	90%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON