Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Today: UA 1815 at 00:08 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–28%.

Safest bet today UA 1815 SFO 00:08 → BNA 06:10 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time Riskiest UA 433 SFO 14:26 → BNA 20:41 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 24% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1815 United Flight history →	SFO 00:08	BNA 06:10	11%	2%	0.2%	77%
UA 1291 United	SFO 18:34	BNA 01:08	23%	6%	0.6%	no record
UA 499 United Flight history →	SFO 11:41	BNA 18:12	25%	5%	0.7%	84%
WN 3634 Southwest Flight history →	SFO 22:50	BNA 05:10	26%	6%	0.5%	40%
UA 373 United Flight history →	SFO 16:10	BNA 22:46	28%	6%	0.7%	48%
UA 433 United	SFO 14:26	BNA 20:41	30%	6%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SFO 09:55 → SLC 12:44DL 920	1h 01m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:45 → BNA 18:13DL 2205	6h 18m	82%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON