Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 19 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 400 at 07:10 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–25%.

Safest bet that day DL 400 SFO 07:10 → BOS 15:55 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest B6 1034 SFO 11:19 → BOS 19:57 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 400 Delta Flight history →	SFO 07:10	BOS 15:55	9%	2%	0.7%	89%
UA 1015 United Flight history →	SFO 07:00	BOS 15:54	9%	3%	0.7%	95%
UA 1665 United Flight history →	SFO 23:05	BOS 08:01	10%	4%	0.7%	84%
UA 371 United	SFO 07:04	BOS 16:07	10%	4%	0.7%	no record
UA 2647 United Flight history →	SFO 08:10	BOS 17:04	13%	6%	0.7%	82%
UA 796 United Flight history →	SFO 21:25	BOS 06:21	13%	5%	0.6%	87%
UA 2001 United Flight history →	SFO 16:15	BOS 01:11	15%	6%	0.7%	88%
DL 1655 Delta Flight history →	SFO 22:10	BOS 06:45	15%	5%	0.7%	69%
B6 434 JetBlue Flight history →	SFO 07:44	BOS 16:22	16%	5%	0.8%	86%
DL 860 Delta Flight history →	SFO 15:00	BOS 23:41	18%	9%	0.7%	37%
UA 2356 United Flight history →	SFO 10:05	BOS 18:59	20%	9%	0.7%	63%
UA 1372 United Flight history →	SFO 12:25	BOS 21:21	20%	10%	0.7%	79%
DL 977 Delta Flight history →	SFO 12:20	BOS 21:02	23%	9%	0.7%	60%
B6 734 JetBlue Flight history →	SFO 15:18	BOS 23:59	25%	16%	0.8%	78%
B6 134 JetBlue Flight history →	SFO 21:44	BOS 06:28	25%	14%	0.8%	65%
B6 1534 JetBlue Flight history →	SFO 11:26	BOS 20:16	27%	13%	0.8%	66%
B6 1634 JetBlue Flight history →	SFO 12:30	BOS 21:18	28%	15%	0.8%	66%
B6 1734 JetBlue Flight history →	SFO 10:25	BOS 19:12	30%	13%	0.8%	70%
B6 1034 JetBlue Flight history →	SFO 11:19	BOS 19:57	30%	14%	0.8%	54%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SFO 00:35 → MSP 06:09DL 2789	51m Minneapolis	MSP 07:00 → BOS 10:45DL 2649	7h 10m	91%	83%
United Details →	SFO 00:01 → EWR 08:16UA 2416	1h 44m Newark	EWR 10:00 → BOS 11:16UA 375	8h 15m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	SFO 05:50 → SLC 08:40DL 1331	1h 10m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:50 → BOS 16:36DL 657	7h 46m	98%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON