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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 2664 at 09:33 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–28%.

Safest bet that day UA 2664 SFO 09:33 → BWI 17:57 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest WN 2683 SFO 21:10 → BWI 05:25 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 43% on time
Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
UA 2664 United Flight history → SFO 09:33 BWI 17:57 13% 4% 0.6% 91%
UA 1340 United Flight history → SFO 22:40 BWI 07:10 13% 3% 0.6% 86%
WN 2683 Southwest Flight history → SFO 21:10 BWI 05:25 28% 5% 0.6% 43%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
DeltaDetails → SFO 00:35 → MSP 06:09DL 2789 1h 01m Minneapolis MSP 07:10 → BWI 10:42DL 2357 7h 07m 91% 86%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479 1h 11m Denver DEN 09:46 → BWI 15:17UA 1362 7h 17m 97% 84%
SouthwestDetails → SFO 05:10 → DEN 08:40WN 1424 1h 10m Denver DEN 09:50 → BWI 15:16WN 1509 7h 06m 95% 80%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON