Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:08 am at San Francisco)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, UA 562 at 12:00, with a 35% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


UA 562 United Flight history →	SFO 12:00	BZN 15:21	35%	10%	0.2%	65%
AS 2062 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SFO 13:56	BZN 17:11	69%	24%	3.8%	31%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Bozeman on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Bozeman is 1 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479	2h 58m Denver	DEN 11:33 → BZN 13:21UA 741	7h 21m	98%	90%
United Details →	SFO 06:15 → DEN 09:59UA 1758	1h 33m Denver	DEN 11:32 → BZN 13:20UA 1248	6h 05m	95%	88%
United Details →	SFO 08:31 → DEN 12:22UA 2348	2h 53m Denver	DEN 15:15 → BZN 17:10UA 6030 · flown by SkyWest	7h 39m	98%	88%
Southwest Details →	SFO 05:00 → LAS 06:35WN 4231	55m Las Vegas	LAS 07:30 → BZN 10:35WN 392	4h 35m	95%	87%
Delta Details →	SFO 05:50 → SLC 08:40DL 1331	1h 15m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:55 → BZN 11:17DL 1971	4h 27m	95%	86%
Delta Details →	SFO 17:07 → SLC 20:00DL 1088	3h 05m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:05 → BZN 00:23 +1DL 2046	6h 16m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	SFO 05:55 → SEA 08:05DL 2721	3h 35m Seattle	SEA 11:40 → BZN 14:35DL 4104 · flown by SkyWest	7h 40m	97%	83%
Alaska Details →	SFO 07:20 → PDX 09:02AS 1410	1h 28m Portland	PDX 10:30 → BZN 13:10AS 2022 · flown by Horizon	4h 50m	93%	83%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	SFO 10:40 → DEN 14:23UA 1604	52m Denver	DEN 15:15 → BZN 17:10UA 6030 · flown by SkyWest	5h 30m	61%	55%
Alaska Details →	SFO 17:38 → SEA 19:39AS 1340	1h 01m Seattle	SEA 20:40 → BZN 23:19AS 458	4h 41m	60%	47%
Delta Details →	SFO 13:26 → SLC 16:16DL 902	1h 04m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:20 → BZN 18:44DL 3676 · flown by SkyWest	4h 18m	55%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON