tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 00:35, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Cleveland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 52% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 2097 United Flight history → SFO 23:08 CLE 06:59 17% 4% 0.5% 52%
UA 2603 United SFO 10:41 CLE 18:30 22% 4% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Cleveland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Cleveland is 3 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SFO 00:35 → MSP 06:09DL 2789 3h 51m Minneapolis MSP 10:00 → CLE 12:52DL 2057 9h 17m 99% 91%
UnitedDetails → SFO 00:50 → ORD 07:16UA 1850 3h 13m Chicago ORD 10:29 → CLE 12:58UA 2389 9h 08m 100% 89%
SouthwestDetails → SFO 05:50 → MDW 12:00WN 1779 2h 35m Chicago MDW 14:35 → CLE 16:59WN 3220 8h 09m 100% 87%
AmericanDetails → SFO 06:02 → ORD 12:29AA 2614 2h 21m Chicago ORD 14:50 → CLE 17:23AA 3454 · flown by Envoy 8h 21m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → SFO 12:42 → MSP 18:19DL 2078 2h 32m Minneapolis MSP 20:51 → CLE 23:44DL 1392 8h 02m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → SFO 06:05 → ORD 12:41UA 2091 1h 39m Chicago ORD 14:20 → CLE 16:54UA 1502 7h 49m 97% 84%
SouthwestDetails → SFO 10:50 → STL 16:55WN 1417 4h 00m St Louis STL 20:55 → CLE 23:30WN 3900 9h 40m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479 1h 05m Denver DEN 09:40 → CLE 14:36UA 619 6h 36m 94% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SFO 00:45 → IAH 06:34UA 604 46m Houston IAH 07:20 → CLE 11:14UA 544 7h 29m 62% 55%
SouthwestDetails → SFO 14:35 → DEN 18:10WN 3641 55m Denver DEN 19:05 → CLE 00:01 +1WN 1425 6h 26m 58% 40%
UnitedDetails → SFO 10:20 → EWR 19:03UA 713 52m Newark EWR 19:55 → CLE 21:45UA 2398 8h 25m 52% 32%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON