Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 3082 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–19%.

Safest bet that day AA 3082 SFO 05:00 → CLT 13:15 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest AA 2105 SFO 13:38 → CLT 21:45 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3082 American Flight history →	SFO 05:00	CLT 13:15	7%	2%	1.8%	98%
AA 1960 American Flight history →	SFO 08:15	CLT 16:36	16%	3%	1.3%	85%
AA 2514 American Flight history →	SFO 22:05	CLT 06:11	16%	3%	1.6%	83%
AA 1580 American Flight history →	SFO 23:49	CLT 08:05	19%	3%	1.6%	59%
AA 2411 American	SFO 11:02	CLT 19:06	24%	4%	1.3%	no record
AA 2562 American Flight history →	SFO 13:20	CLT 21:44	27%	5%	1.3%	74%
AA 2105 American	SFO 13:38	CLT 21:45	28%	5%	1.8%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SFO 00:35 → MSP 06:09DL 2789	1h 04m Minneapolis	MSP 07:13 → CLT 10:39DL 1912	7h 04m	93%	85%
Delta Details →	SFO 05:40 → DTW 13:09DL 772	56m Detroit	DTW 14:05 → CLT 15:55DL 1429	7h 15m	94%	82%
Southwest Details →	SFO 05:50 → MDW 12:00WN 1779	1h 00m Chicago	MDW 13:00 → CLT 16:00WN 4343	7h 10m	95%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON