tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 00:35, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Columbus on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 62% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 1329 United SFO 08:27 CMH 16:16 16% 5% 0.6% no record
UA 1095 United Flight history → SFO 10:30 CMH 18:24 24% 7% 0.6% 66%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Columbus on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Columbus is 3 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SFO 06:05 → ORD 12:41UA 2091 3h 53m Chicago ORD 16:34 → CMH 19:13UA 3570 · flown by Republic 10h 08m 99% 92%
UnitedDetails → SFO 00:50 → ORD 07:16UA 1850 3h 24m Chicago ORD 10:40 → CMH 13:17UA 2849 9h 27m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → SFO 11:37 → DTW 19:09DL 361 3h 41m Detroit DTW 22:50 → CMH 23:56DL 5634 · flown by Republic 9h 19m 100% 91%
AmericanDetails → SFO 06:02 → ORD 12:29AA 2614 2h 46m Chicago ORD 15:15 → CMH 17:49AA 3361 · flown by Envoy 8h 47m 98% 90%
UnitedDetails → SFO 00:01 → EWR 08:18UA 2416 2h 20m Newark EWR 10:38 → CMH 12:33UA 3638 · flown by Republic 9h 32m 98% 88%
UnitedDetails → SFO 08:15 → ORD 14:50UA 1568 2h 55m Chicago ORD 17:45 → CMH 20:24UA 3674 · flown by Republic 9h 09m 95% 87%
AmericanDetails → SFO 10:17 → ORD 16:46AA 2543 2h 43m Chicago ORD 19:29 → CMH 22:03AA 3447 · flown by Envoy 8h 46m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → SFO 06:00 → MSP 11:36DL 2178 3h 59m Minneapolis MSP 15:35 → CMH 18:28DL 2113 9h 28m 99% 86%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SFO 00:45 → IAH 06:34UA 604 46m Houston IAH 07:20 → CMH 11:02UA 6271 · flown by Mesa 7h 17m 62% 52%
SouthwestDetails → SFO 14:00 → SAN 15:40WN 4242 50m San Diego SAN 16:30 → CMH 23:55WN 4808 6h 55m 63% 39%
UnitedDetails → SFO 13:15 → IAD 21:25UA 1791 50m Dulles IAD 22:15 → CMH 23:42UA 4414 · flown by GoJet 7h 27m 64% 39%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON