Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Southwest via San Diego, leaving 08:55, is the safest bet: 58% chance of reaching Dallas on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 65% of the time.

Nonstops that day


WN 1859 Southwest Flight history →	SFO 15:10	DAL 20:50	30%	5%	0.5%	17%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas is 2 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	SFO 05:00 → LAS 06:35WN 4231	1h 15m Las Vegas	LAS 07:50 → DAL 12:40WN 1317	5h 40m	98%	85%
Southwest Details →	SFO 05:30 → PHX 07:30WN 4145	1h 36m Phoenix	PHX 09:06 → DAL 13:34WN 3375	6h 04m	99%	84%
Southwest Details →	SFO 05:10 → DEN 08:40WN 1424	2h 08m Denver	DEN 10:48 → DAL 13:45WN 1408	6h 35m	100%	84%
Southwest Details →	SFO 12:50 → AUS 18:20WN 3633	3h 35m Austin	AUS 21:55 → DAL 23:05WN 280	8h 15m	99%	83%
Southwest Details →	SFO 10:10 → AUS 15:45WN 4227	3h 20m Austin	AUS 19:05 → DAL 20:10WN 2134	8h 00m	97%	79%
Delta Details →	SFO 06:00 → ATL 13:44DL 570	3h 00m Atlanta	ATL 16:44 → DAL 17:54DL 2780	9h 54m	99%	76%
Southwest Details →	SFO 10:50 → STL 16:55WN 1417	2h 15m St Louis	STL 19:10 → DAL 20:50WN 3597	8h 00m	95%	76%
Southwest Details →	SFO 13:20 → LAS 15:00WN 3644	2h 20m Las Vegas	LAS 17:20 → DAL 22:10WN 2220	6h 50m	96%	75%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	SFO 12:30 → SAN 14:10WN 3525	1h 05m San Diego	SAN 15:15 → DAL 20:25WN 3582	5h 55m	74%	53%
Southwest Details →	SFO 11:00 → SAN 12:40WN 3496	1h 15m San Diego	SAN 13:55 → DAL 19:05WN 4097	6h 05m	67%	50%
Southwest Details →	SFO 14:35 → DEN 18:10WN 3641	55m Denver	DEN 19:05 → DAL 22:05WN 1522	5h 30m	65%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON