Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:41 pm at San Francisco); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 38%, against 28% on a calm day. Safest: UA 363 at 18:58, 35%.

Safest bet today UA 363 SFO 18:58 → EUG 20:34 · 35% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 5453 SFO 13:53 → EUG 14:56 · 43% chance 15+ min late

Weather 38% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 28% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 363 United	SFO 18:58	EUG 20:34	35%	13%	0.5%	no record
UA 5604 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 16:10	EUG 17:56	38%	19%	1.4%	57%
OO 5453 SkyWest	SFO 13:53	EUG 14:56	43%	27%	1.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON