Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:44 am at San Francisco); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 28–35% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today UA 5271 SFO 20:55 → FAT 22:13 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time Riskiest UA 5652 SFO 16:10 → FAT 17:28 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Against a calm day 31% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 31% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 5271 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 20:55	FAT 22:13	28%	14%	0.8%	62%
OO 5738 SkyWest	SFO 22:35	FAT 23:42	31%	12%	0.8%	no record
UA 5652 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 16:10	FAT 17:28	35%	14%	0.6%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON