Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 2431 at 07:04 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–26%.

Safest bet that day UA 2431 SFO 07:04 → FLL 15:53 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 278 SFO 22:40 → FLL 07:22 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2431 United	SFO 07:04	FLL 15:53	8%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 1230 United Flight history →	SFO 21:15	FLL 05:59	12%	4%	0.5%	75%
B6 578 JetBlue Flight history →	SFO 10:18	FLL 18:54	23%	6%	0.6%	82%
B6 378 JetBlue Flight history →	SFO 11:00	FLL 19:45	23%	6%	0.6%	77%
B6 278 JetBlue Flight history →	SFO 22:40	FLL 07:22	26%	10%	0.6%	79%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	SFO 00:05 → IAH 05:54UA 505	1h 41m Houston	IAH 07:35 → FLL 11:22UA 2261	8h 17m	97%	88%
United Details →	SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479	1h 22m Denver	DEN 09:57 → FLL 16:03UA 1214	8h 03m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	SFO 06:00 → ATL 13:44DL 570	1h 41m Atlanta	ATL 15:25 → FLL 17:23DL 2345	8h 23m	98%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON