Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Today: UA 6014 at 08:10 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–34%.

Safest bet today UA 6014 SFO 08:10 → GEG 10:27 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest UA 4753 SFO 16:10 → GEG 18:26 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Against a calm day 28% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 29% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 6014 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 08:10	GEG 10:27	16%	4%	0.3%	88%
UA 5693 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 20:45	GEG 23:04	27%	9%	0.7%	70%
OO 5822 SkyWest	SFO 19:00	GEG 21:25	28%	10%	0.7%	no record
AS 3075 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 12:29	GEG 14:36	34%	9%	0.6%	19%
UA 4753 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 16:10	GEG 18:26	34%	10%	0.7%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON