tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:08 am at San Francisco)
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Southwest via Las Vegas, leaving 13:20, is the safest bet: 66% chance of reaching Houston on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 65% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 2 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → SFO 13:20 → LAS 15:00WN 3644 2h 40m Las Vegas LAS 17:40 → HOU 22:42WN 1795 7h 22m 98% 66%
AmericanDetails → SFO 14:03 → DFW 19:59AA 2387 2h 39m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:38 → HOU 23:56AA 5465 · flown by PSA 7h 53m 96% 61%
SouthwestDetails → SFO 12:50 → AUS 18:20WN 3633 2h 25m Austin AUS 20:45 → HOU 21:50WN 4192 7h 00m 95% 60%
SouthwestDetails → SFO 15:45 → LAS 17:25WN 1288 3h 13m Las Vegas LAS 20:38 → HOU 01:38 +1WN 2304 7h 53m 99% 59%
SouthwestDetails → SFO 13:35 → PHX 15:45WN 4237 1h 40m Phoenix PHX 17:25 → HOU 22:05WN 4203 6h 30m 88% 59%
SouthwestDetails → SFO 14:35 → DEN 18:10WN 3641 2h 15m Denver DEN 20:25 → HOU 23:55WN 2026 7h 20m 92% 57%
SouthwestDetails → SFO 12:30 → SAN 14:10WN 3525 2h 15m San Diego SAN 16:25 → HOU 21:45WN 3212 7h 15m 93% 56%
SouthwestDetails → SFO 14:15 → LAX 15:45WN 278 4h 00m Los Angeles LAX 19:45 → HOU 01:07 +1WN 2881 8h 52m 100% 55%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SFO 11:24 → DFW 17:14AA 1849 1h 14m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:28 → HOU 20:06AA 3391 · flown by Envoy 6h 42m 70% 56%
SouthwestDetails → SFO 21:05 → LAX 22:40WN 3648 1h 00m Los Angeles LAX 23:40 → HOU 05:00 +1WN 2402 5h 55m 65% 48%
SouthwestDetails → SFO 12:00 → LAX 13:30WN 4235 1h 05m Los Angeles LAX 14:35 → HOU 19:56WN 4694 5h 56m 65% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON