Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Today: UA 2861 at 06:49 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–19%.

Safest bet today UA 2861 SFO 06:49 → IAD 15:17 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1791 SFO 13:15 → IAD 21:25 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2861 United	SFO 06:49	IAD 15:17	9%	3%	0.3%	no record
UA 1849 United Flight history →	SFO 08:10	IAD 16:25	14%	4%	0.3%	84%
UA 599 United	SFO 08:19	IAD 16:27	14%	4%	0.3%	no record
UA 1083 United Flight history →	SFO 23:05	IAD 07:30	15%	4%	0.8%	80%
UA 1453 United Flight history →	SFO 16:34	IAD 00:55	18%	6%	0.8%	87%
UA 357 United Flight history →	SFO 21:30	IAD 05:53	18%	5%	0.8%	74%
UA 2837 United Flight history →	SFO 22:35	IAD 06:58	19%	5%	0.8%	67%
UA 755 United Flight history →	SFO 12:49	IAD 20:53	20%	6%	0.7%	78%
UA 336 United Flight history →	SFO 10:50	IAD 19:11	22%	6%	0.7%	78%
UA 1791 United Flight history →	SFO 13:15	IAD 21:25	23%	6%	0.8%	76%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	SFO 06:00 → LAS 07:46UA 582	1h 02m Las Vegas	LAS 08:48 → IAD 16:24UA 1140	7h 24m	94%	77%
Delta Details →	SFO 00:35 → MSP 06:09DL 2789	1h 08m Minneapolis	MSP 07:17 → IAD 10:46DL 3699 · flown by SkyWest	7h 11m	90%	76%
United Details →	SFO 18:56 → DEN 22:44UA 2436	1h 15m Denver	DEN 23:59 → IAD 05:27 +1UA 1924	7h 31m	84%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON