Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 2168 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–15%.

Safest bet that day UA 2168 SFO 05:00 → IAH 10:55 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest UA 1387 SFO 12:15 → IAH 18:27 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2168 United Flight history →	SFO 05:00	IAH 10:55	6%	2%	0.6%	97%
UA 686 United Flight history →	SFO 07:05	IAH 13:11	7%	3%	0.6%	95%
UA 604 United Flight history →	SFO 00:45	IAH 06:34	10%	2%	0.6%	83%
UA 2498 United Flight history →	SFO 08:55	IAH 15:07	10%	3%	0.6%	89%
UA 505 United Flight history →	SFO 00:05	IAH 05:40	11%	2%	0.6%	82%
UA 1702 United Flight history →	SFO 18:54	IAH 00:59	12%	4%	0.6%	83%
UA 2305 United Flight history →	SFO 16:40	IAH 22:52	15%	5%	0.6%	85%
UA 2002 United Flight history →	SFO 14:28	IAH 20:40	16%	5%	0.6%	71%
UA 1259 United Flight history →	SFO 10:50	IAH 16:52	18%	4%	0.6%	61%
UA 1387 United Flight history →	SFO 12:15	IAH 18:27	19%	4%	0.6%	78%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SFO 05:50 → SLC 08:40DL 1331	47m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:27 → IAH 13:31DL 2502	5h 41m	94%	78%
American Details →	SFO 00:26 → DFW 06:05AA 3281	53m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 06:58 → IAH 08:09AA 3598 · flown by Envoy	5h 43m	83%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON