Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 18–24% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today UA 2477 SFO 23:05 → IND 06:38 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time Riskiest UA 1902 SFO 11:29 → IND 18:57 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2477 United Flight history →	SFO 23:05	IND 06:38	18%	5%	0.5%	64%
UA 2274 United	SFO 10:16	IND 17:34	21%	8%	0.2%	no record
UA 1902 United Flight history →	SFO 11:29	IND 18:57	24%	6%	0.5%	83%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	SFO 05:00 → LAS 06:35WN 4231	50m Las Vegas	LAS 07:25 → IND 14:05WN 2246	6h 05m	95%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON