Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:35 am at San Francisco)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 12–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


AS 3468 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 09:10	JAC 12:31	12%	5%	0.6%	82%
UA 1593 United	SFO 13:33	JAC 16:54	18%	6%	0.3%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Jackson on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Jackson is 1 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SFO 09:55 → SLC 12:44DL 920	3h 11m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:55 → JAC 17:00DL 417	6h 05m	98%	85%
United Details →	SFO 07:03 → LAX 08:42UA 1260	1h 46m Los Angeles	LAX 10:28 → JAC 13:48UA 2110	5h 45m	98%	82%
United Details →	SFO 08:31 → DEN 12:22UA 2348	1h 33m Denver	DEN 13:55 → JAC 15:25UA 1537	5h 54m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	SFO 13:20 → SLC 16:14DL 849	2h 16m Salt Lake City	SLC 18:30 → JAC 19:37DL 4025 · flown by SkyWest	5h 17m	98%	80%
United Details →	SFO 10:40 → DEN 14:23UA 1604	1h 57m Denver	DEN 16:20 → JAC 17:53UA 2200	6h 13m	96%	78%
United Details →	SFO 08:15 → ORD 14:50UA 1568	1h 25m Chicago	ORD 16:15 → JAC 18:21UA 1987	9h 06m	94%	74%
United Details →	SFO 12:43 → DEN 16:35UA 540	2h 44m Denver	DEN 19:19 → JAC 21:01UA 785	7h 18m	96%	70%
American Details →	SFO 09:08 → LAX 10:48AA 6336 · flown by SkyWest	3h 19m Los Angeles	LAX 14:07 → JAC 17:27AA 6471 · flown by SkyWest	7h 19m	100%	68%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	SFO 11:40 → LAX 13:20AA 6330 · flown by SkyWest	47m Los Angeles	LAX 14:07 → JAC 17:27AA 6471 · flown by SkyWest	4h 47m	65%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON