Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 25 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 405 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–21%.

Safest bet that day DL 405 SFO 07:00 → JFK 15:43 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 166 SFO 12:10 → JFK 21:00 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 405 Delta Flight history →	SFO 07:00	JFK 15:43	6%	2%	0.7%	90%
AA 234 American Flight history →	SFO 06:15	JFK 15:02	7%	2%	1.8%	92%
AS 211 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 06:15	JFK 14:32	8%	2%	0.7%	92%
DL 667 Delta	SFO 00:06	JFK 08:08	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 365 Delta Flight history →	SFO 22:35	JFK 07:02	10%	4%	0.7%	78%
AS 20 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 07:20	JFK 16:08	10%	3%	0.7%	80%
DL 2112 Delta Flight history →	SFO 23:50	JFK 08:19	10%	4%	0.7%	66%
DL 383 Delta Flight history →	SFO 08:55	JFK 17:45	11%	4%	0.7%	88%
B6 116 JetBlue Flight history →	SFO 06:00	JFK 14:38	12%	3%	0.7%	89%
AA 9780 American	SFO 06:12	JFK 14:31	13%	3%	1.3%	no record
DL 396 Delta Flight history →	SFO 16:00	JFK 00:40	14%	6%	0.7%	62%
AA 276 American Flight history →	SFO 21:20	JFK 06:00	14%	4%	1.8%	87%
DL 606 Delta	SFO 09:12	JFK 17:26	15%	5%	0.7%	no record
DL 668 Delta Flight history →	SFO 11:30	JFK 20:19	15%	5%	0.7%	76%
B6 316 JetBlue Flight history →	SFO 08:00	JFK 16:37	16%	4%	0.7%	87%
B6 616 JetBlue Flight history →	SFO 00:00	JFK 08:14	16%	3%	0.8%	85%
B6 16 JetBlue Flight history →	SFO 20:25	JFK 05:07	18%	8%	0.7%	74%
DL 691 Delta Flight history →	SFO 13:00	JFK 21:44	20%	8%	0.7%	49%
AS 42 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 13:38	JFK 22:26	20%	7%	0.7%	68%
B6 816 JetBlue Flight history →	SFO 23:50	JFK 08:33	21%	7%	0.7%	79%
AA 148 American Flight history →	SFO 14:45	JFK 23:42	22%	6%	1.3%	73%
B6 216 JetBlue Flight history →	SFO 13:15	JFK 22:02	24%	8%	0.8%	83%
B6 416 JetBlue Flight history →	SFO 14:35	JFK 23:20	25%	8%	0.7%	80%
AA 16 American Flight history →	SFO 10:15	JFK 19:04	27%	6%	1.3%	75%
AA 166 American Flight history →	SFO 12:10	JFK 21:00	30%	9%	1.3%	74%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SFO 00:35 → MSP 06:09DL 2789	46m Minneapolis	MSP 06:55 → JFK 10:39DL 2969	7h 04m	90%	84%
Delta Details →	SFO 11:37 → DTW 19:09DL 361	1h 01m Detroit	DTW 20:10 → JFK 22:12DL 1316	7h 35m	84%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON