Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 23 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 4314 at 05:05 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–30%.

Safest bet that day WN 4314 SFO 05:05 → LAS 06:42 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 1850 SFO 15:43 → LAS 17:30 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4314 Southwest	SFO 05:05	LAS 06:42	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 4231 Southwest Flight history →	SFO 05:00	LAS 06:35	4%	1%	0.6%	90%
UA 582 United Flight history →	SFO 06:00	LAS 07:46	5%	2%	0.6%	98%
UA 1711 United	SFO 07:04	LAS 08:56	6%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 1627 United	SFO 08:40	LAS 10:27	9%	4%	0.6%	no record
AS 718 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 07:25	LAS 09:05	9%	3%	0.6%	91%
UA 2382 United Flight history →	SFO 08:42	LAS 10:28	9%	4%	0.5%	75%
UA 1995 United Flight history →	SFO 19:37	LAS 21:27	14%	6%	0.6%	81%
UA 406 United Flight history →	SFO 21:15	LAS 23:10	15%	6%	0.6%	77%
UA 2855 United Flight history →	SFO 14:21	LAS 16:11	16%	8%	0.5%	62%
UA 611 United Flight history →	SFO 10:42	LAS 12:28	16%	6%	0.6%	80%
UA 751 United Flight history →	SFO 17:37	LAS 19:27	16%	7%	0.6%	72%
UA 2839 United Flight history →	SFO 22:59	LAS 00:46	16%	7%	0.6%	59%
WN 4249 Southwest Flight history →	SFO 09:45	LAS 11:20	16%	3%	0.6%	22%
UA 2449 United Flight history →	SFO 12:00	LAS 13:50	21%	7%	0.5%	66%
AS 468 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 21:59	LAS 23:42	22%	5%	0.6%	40%
AS 776 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 15:52	LAS 17:33	24%	8%	0.6%	63%
WN 3644 Southwest Flight history →	SFO 13:20	LAS 15:00	27%	8%	0.5%	17%
WN 4043 Southwest	SFO 10:47	LAS 12:22	27%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 1288 Southwest Flight history →	SFO 15:45	LAS 17:25	28%	8%	0.5%	4%
F9 4156 Frontier Flight history →	SFO 21:00	LAS 22:48	30%	13%	1.3%	55%
F9 4158 Frontier Flight history →	SFO 11:20	LAS 13:10	33%	12%	1.2%	67%
F9 1850 Frontier Flight history →	SFO 15:43	LAS 17:30	34%	14%	1.2%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON