tailodds FORECAST
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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 46 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 2222 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–39%.

Safest bet that day WN 2222 SFO 06:05 → LAX 07:35 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest WN 3648 SFO 21:05 → LAX 22:40 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 21% on time
Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
WN 2222 Southwest Flight history → SFO 06:05 LAX 07:35 4% 1% 0.5% 100%
WN 2486 Southwest SFO 06:10 LAX 07:35 5% 1% 0.5% no record
UA 2127 United Flight history → SFO 06:00 LAX 07:39 5% 1% 0.5% 96%
AA 6294 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → SFO 06:00 LAX 07:41 6% 2% 0.7% 89%
AS 1620 Alaska Flight history → SFO 06:00 LAX 07:32 8% 1% 0.6% 94%
DL 1598 Delta Flight history → SFO 07:00 LAX 08:30 8% 2% 0.7% 94%
AA 3250 American SFO 06:11 LAX 07:47 10% 2% 0.7% no record
DL 1421 Delta Flight history → SFO 09:20 LAX 10:53 10% 2% 0.7% 91%
UA 1260 United Flight history → SFO 07:04 LAX 08:41 11% 2% 0.5% 89%
UA 1457 United SFO 09:03 LAX 10:41 13% 3% 0.5% no record
WN 4957 Southwest Flight history → SFO 09:25 LAX 11:05 13% 3% 0.5% 41%
AA 6336 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → SFO 09:08 LAX 10:48 15% 4% 0.7% 86%
UA 1427 United Flight history → SFO 18:45 LAX 20:29 16% 5% 0.5% 83%
UA 298 United Flight history → SFO 19:40 LAX 21:24 16% 5% 0.5% 69%
AS 340 Alaska SFO 07:24 LAX 08:53 16% 2% 0.6% no record
AA 2660 American SFO 07:26 LAX 09:02 16% 3% 0.7% no record
DL 1715 Delta Flight history → SFO 11:45 LAX 13:17 16% 5% 0.7% 60%
UA 2367 United Flight history → SFO 10:19 LAX 11:57 17% 4% 0.5% 78%
UA 2610 United Flight history → SFO 13:55 LAX 15:35 18% 5% 0.5% 78%
UA 2850 United Flight history → SFO 20:55 LAX 22:37 18% 6% 0.5% 65%
UA 2179 United Flight history → SFO 22:37 LAX 00:19 18% 6% 0.6% 72%
UA 1506 United Flight history → SFO 12:15 LAX 13:55 19% 5% 0.5% 71%
UA 1754 United Flight history → SFO 16:25 LAX 18:05 19% 6% 0.5% 73%
AS 1329 Alaska Flight history → SFO 08:30 LAX 10:07 19% 2% 0.6% 64%
AA 6330 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → SFO 11:40 LAX 13:20 19% 7% 0.6% 52%
OO 6274 SkyWest SFO 09:42 LAX 11:17 20% 5% 0.6% no record
WN 1275 Southwest SFO 09:57 LAX 11:21 20% 3% 0.5% no record
DL 2725 Delta Flight history → SFO 14:30 LAX 15:56 22% 6% 0.7% 49%
AA 6188 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → SFO 13:39 LAX 15:19 22% 8% 0.6% 44%
F9 3308 Frontier Flight history → SFO 08:54 LAX 10:28 24% 5% 0.9% 70%
AA 6221 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → SFO 16:04 LAX 17:45 25% 9% 0.6% 47%
DL 1559 Delta Flight history → SFO 20:05 LAX 21:40 25% 6% 0.7% 67%
AS 3037 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → SFO 21:43 LAX 23:21 25% 10% 0.7% 27%
AA 6428 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → SFO 10:09 LAX 11:49 26% 7% 0.6% 59%
DL 1629 Delta Flight history → SFO 18:43 LAX 20:10 26% 6% 0.7% 64%
DL 2267 Delta Flight history → SFO 16:39 LAX 18:13 26% 6% 0.7% 53%
AS 1604 Alaska Flight history → SFO 13:51 LAX 15:22 27% 5% 0.6% 71%
WN 3645 Southwest Flight history → SFO 17:40 LAX 19:20 28% 7% 0.5% 35%
WN 278 Southwest Flight history → SFO 14:15 LAX 15:45 28% 5% 0.5% 20%
WN 4235 Southwest Flight history → SFO 12:00 LAX 13:30 30% 5% 0.5% 8%
AS 1602 Alaska Flight history → SFO 10:15 LAX 11:44 30% 4% 0.6% 27%
AS 1523 Alaska Flight history → SFO 16:30 LAX 18:06 31% 7% 0.6% 58%
AA 2567 American Flight history → SFO 20:11 LAX 21:49 33% 7% 0.7% 60%
AS 751 Alaska Flight history → SFO 19:46 LAX 21:06 37% 7% 0.6% 27%
F9 2858 Frontier Flight history → SFO 20:23 LAX 21:59 37% 12% 0.9% 69%
WN 3648 Southwest Flight history → SFO 21:05 LAX 22:40 39% 8% 0.5% 21%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON