tailodds FORECAST
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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 00:35, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching New York on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 52% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SFO 00:35 → MSP 06:09DL 2789 3h 56m Minneapolis MSP 10:05 → LGA 13:45DL 2764 10h 10m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → SFO 00:05 → IAH 05:55UA 505 1h 59m Houston IAH 07:54 → LGA 12:15UA 1143 9h 10m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → SFO 11:37 → DTW 19:09DL 361 2h 41m Detroit DTW 21:50 → LGA 23:40DL 2603 9h 03m 98% 80%
UnitedDetails → SFO 00:45 → IAH 06:34UA 604 1h 31m Houston IAH 08:05 → LGA 12:40UA 2133 8h 55m 96% 79%
DeltaDetails → SFO 06:00 → MSP 11:36DL 2178 1h 24m Minneapolis MSP 13:00 → LGA 16:49DL 2756 7h 49m 97% 76%
UnitedDetails → SFO 00:50 → ORD 07:16UA 1850 2h 06m Chicago ORD 09:22 → LGA 12:36UA 1258 8h 46m 100% 75%
DeltaDetails → SFO 12:42 → MSP 18:19DL 2078 1h 39m Minneapolis MSP 19:58 → LGA 23:40DL 2733 7h 58m 92% 75%
UnitedDetails → SFO 10:50 → IAD 19:11UA 336 2h 54m Dulles IAD 22:05 → LGA 23:30UA 3682 · flown by Republic 9h 40m 96% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → SFO 12:20 → BOS 21:02DL 977 58m Boston BOS 22:00 → LGA 23:23DL 5840 · flown by Republic 8h 03m 74% 57%
UnitedDetails → SFO 12:00 → ORD 18:35UA 2317 1h 10m Chicago ORD 19:45 → LGA 23:15UA 1655 8h 15m 72% 45%
AmericanDetails → SFO 12:30 → DFW 18:26AA 3258 47m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:13 → LGA 23:45AA 2708 8h 15m 52% 33%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON