tailodds FORECAST
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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 05:50, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Long Beach on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 57% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Long Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SFO 05:50 → SLC 08:40DL 1331 2h 25m Salt Lake City SLC 11:05 → LGB 11:59DL 1116 6h 09m 99% 86%
SouthwestDetails → SFO 05:30 → PHX 07:30WN 4145 1h 05m Phoenix PHX 08:35 → LGB 09:55WN 165 4h 25m 96% 86%
SouthwestDetails → SFO 05:00 → LAS 06:35WN 4231 3h 18m Las Vegas LAS 09:53 → LGB 11:07WN 4375 6h 07m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → SFO 09:55 → SLC 12:44DL 920 2h 21m Salt Lake City SLC 15:05 → LGB 16:06DL 3793 · flown by SkyWest 6h 11m 97% 85%
AlaskaDetails → SFO 06:03 → SEA 08:13AS 620 3h 07m Seattle SEA 11:20 → LGB 14:07AS 717 8h 04m 100% 74%
SouthwestDetails → SFO 13:35 → PHX 15:45WN 4237 3h 30m Phoenix PHX 19:15 → LGB 20:35WN 4352 7h 00m 100% 73%
SouthwestDetails → SFO 15:45 → LAS 17:25WN 1288 2h 35m Las Vegas LAS 20:00 → LGB 21:10WN 2031 5h 25m 96% 72%
SouthwestDetails → SFO 09:45 → LAS 11:20WN 4249 3h 10m Las Vegas LAS 14:30 → LGB 15:44WN 2401 5h 59m 100% 68%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → SFO 10:00 → DEN 13:30WN 4284 1h 20m Denver DEN 14:50 → LGB 16:17WN 4483 6h 17m 74% 55%
SouthwestDetails → SFO 10:10 → AUS 15:45WN 4227 1h 10m Austin AUS 16:55 → LGB 18:10WN 3015 8h 00m 73% 55%
SouthwestDetails → SFO 13:35 → PHX 15:45WN 4237 55m Phoenix PHX 16:40 → LGB 17:55WN 149 4h 20m 57% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON