Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 7:15 am at San Francisco)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 09:55, is the safest bet: 63% chance of reaching Kansas City on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 46% of the time.

Nonstops today


UA 1515 United Flight history →	SFO 16:29	MCI 22:15	33%	9%	0.3%	50%
UA 2072 United	SFO 11:04	MCI 16:37	35%	6%	0.3%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kansas City is 2 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SFO 12:42 → MSP 18:19DL 2078	3h 11m Minneapolis	MSP 21:30 → MCI 22:58DL 1657	8h 16m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	SFO 14:30 → LAX 15:56DL 2725	2h 29m Los Angeles	LAX 18:25 → MCI 23:41DL 2243	7h 11m	99%	78%
United Details →	SFO 08:31 → DEN 12:22UA 2348	3h 16m Denver	DEN 15:38 → MCI 18:30UA 5385 · flown by SkyWest	7h 59m	99%	77%
Alaska Details →	SFO 07:20 → PDX 09:02AS 1410	2h 28m Portland	PDX 11:30 → MCI 16:53AS 1525	7h 33m	98%	76%
United Details →	SFO 12:00 → ORD 18:35UA 2317	2h 50m Chicago	ORD 21:25 → MCI 23:17UA 4723 · flown by SkyWest	9h 17m	94%	74%
Alaska Details →	SFO 14:20 → SEA 16:31AS 790	1h 56m Seattle	SEA 18:27 → MCI 23:59AS 564	7h 39m	97%	73%
American Details →	SFO 07:59 → DFW 13:29AA 304	3h 40m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:09 → MCI 18:52AA 4165 · flown by Envoy	8h 53m	100%	73%
United Details →	SFO 10:50 → IAH 16:52UA 1259	3h 33m Houston	IAH 20:25 → MCI 22:31UA 1027	9h 41m	100%	72%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	SFO 17:07 → SLC 20:00DL 1088	50m Salt Lake City	SLC 20:50 → MCI 00:13 +1DL 2993	5h 06m	68%	53%
Frontier Details →	SFO 12:04 → DEN 15:46F9 1094	1h 05m Denver	DEN 16:51 → MCI 19:45F9 3376	5h 41m	69%	51%
Frontier Details →	SFO 14:22 → LAS 16:08F9 2486	48m Las Vegas	LAS 16:56 → MCI 21:53F9 4506	5h 31m	46%	23%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON