Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:40 am at San Francisco); 3 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Southwest via Las Vegas, leaving 09:45, is the safest bet: 64% chance of reaching Chicago on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 59% of the time.

Nonstops today


WN 3649 Southwest Flight history →	SFO 23:40	MDW 05:55	25%	3%	0.6%	41%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	SFO 18:10 → SAN 19:45WN 4681	2h 51m San Diego	SAN 22:36 → MDW 04:38 +1WN 1511	8h 28m	97%	82%
Southwest Details →	SFO 10:00 → DEN 13:30WN 4284	2h 20m Denver	DEN 15:50 → MDW 19:15WN 1603	7h 15m	95%	78%
Southwest Details →	SFO 10:50 → STL 16:55WN 1417	1h 35m St Louis	STL 18:30 → MDW 19:35WN 596	6h 45m	93%	76%
Southwest Details →	SFO 12:50 → AUS 18:20WN 3633	3h 35m Austin	AUS 21:55 → MDW 00:31 +1WN 376	9h 41m	99%	76%
Southwest Details →	SFO 07:00 → SAN 08:35WN 1057	3h 20m San Diego	SAN 11:55 → MDW 17:53WN 1252	8h 53m	97%	75%
Southwest Details →	SFO 14:35 → DEN 18:10WN 3641	2h 45m Denver	DEN 20:55 → MDW 00:21 +1WN 1683	7h 46m	96%	74%
Delta Details →	SFO 11:38 → ATL 19:27DL 693	1h 48m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → MDW 22:15DL 1076	8h 37m	95%	73%
Southwest Details →	SFO 08:55 → SAN 10:35WN 4239	1h 35m San Diego	SAN 12:10 → MDW 18:10WN 4163	7h 15m	98%	71%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	SFO 19:35 → SAN 21:15WN 3653	1h 21m San Diego	SAN 22:36 → MDW 04:38 +1WN 1511	7h 03m	66%	56%
Southwest Details →	SFO 13:35 → PHX 15:45WN 4237	50m Phoenix	PHX 16:35 → MDW 22:01WN 2206	6h 26m	59%	41%
Southwest Details →	SFO 16:00 → SAN 17:40WN 3652	1h 05m San Diego	SAN 18:45 → MDW 00:44 +1WN 2395	6h 44m	60%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON