Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 1769 at 22:54 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; morning flights run 17–22%.

Safest bet that day UA 1769 SFO 22:54 → MIA 07:39 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AA 2565 SFO 11:24 → MIA 20:05 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1769 United Flight history →	SFO 22:54	MIA 07:39	14%	4%	0.6%	86%
UA 2029 United Flight history →	SFO 08:40	MIA 17:29	17%	6%	0.7%	73%
UA 1458 United	SFO 12:22	MIA 21:05	22%	6%	0.6%	no record
AA 369 American Flight history →	SFO 08:42	MIA 17:13	22%	5%	0.8%	89%worse than usual
AA 2799 American Flight history →	SFO 23:49	MIA 08:35	22%	4%	1.2%	72%
AA 1545 American Flight history →	SFO 21:49	MIA 06:34	22%	5%	1.0%	56%
AA 1934 American	SFO 11:48	MIA 20:28	31%	6%	1.2%	no record
AA 2565 American Flight history →	SFO 11:24	MIA 20:05	33%	6%	1.2%	58%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	SFO 00:05 → IAH 05:55UA 505	1h 30m Houston	IAH 07:25 → MIA 11:12UA 1966	8h 07m	96%	83%
United Details →	SFO 00:45 → IAH 06:34UA 604	1h 16m Houston	IAH 07:50 → MIA 11:34UA 2753	7h 49m	93%	80%
United Details →	SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479	1h 06m Denver	DEN 09:41 → MIA 15:50UA 1418	7h 50m	94%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON