Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 5627 at 17:19 is the safest bet, 24% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 25–35%.

Safest bet that day UA 5627 SFO 17:19 → MRY 18:17 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest UA 5479 SFO 10:05 → MRY 11:10 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Against a calm day 30% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5627 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 17:19	MRY 18:17	24%	10%	1.0%	79%
UA 5670 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 22:40	MRY 23:47	25%	9%	1.3%	76%
OO 5920 SkyWest	SFO 13:58	MRY 14:56	30%	16%	0.9%	no record
UA 5738 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 13:50	MRY 14:55	31%	16%	1.0%	55%
OO 750 SkyWest	SFO 10:33	MRY 11:31	35%	19%	0.8%	no record
UA 5479 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 10:05	MRY 11:10	35%	16%	0.9%	78%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON