Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 2178 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–26%.

Safest bet that day DL 2178 SFO 06:00 → MSP 11:36 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest UA 648 SFO 16:10 → MSP 21:57 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 32% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2178 Delta Flight history →	SFO 06:00	MSP 11:36	6%	1%	0.6%	94%
DL 2789 Delta Flight history →	SFO 00:35	MSP 06:09	8%	3%	0.2%	87%
UA 283 United Flight history →	SFO 08:33	MSP 14:24	11%	3%	0.5%	78%
DL 756 Delta Flight history →	SFO 18:25	MSP 23:56	16%	4%	0.6%	75%
UA 1050 United	SFO 10:19	MSP 15:56	22%	5%	0.5%	no record
DL 2159 Delta Flight history →	SFO 15:27	MSP 21:00	23%	5%	0.6%	76%
DL 2078 Delta Flight history →	SFO 12:42	MSP 18:19	25%	5%	0.6%	61%
UA 648 United Flight history →	SFO 16:10	MSP 21:57	26%	6%	0.5%	32%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON