Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 8:06 am at San Francisco); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 19–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


UA 246 United Flight history →	SFO 12:08	MSY 18:33	19%	6%	0.2%	82%
UA 1244 United	SFO 16:30	MSY 22:41	21%	7%	0.2%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New Orleans on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New Orleans is 2 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SFO 08:10 → IAD 16:25UA 1849	3h 37m Dulles	IAD 20:02 → MSY 21:49UA 2042	11h 39m	98%	85%
Alaska Details →	SFO 17:38 → SEA 19:39AS 1340	3h 34m Seattle	SEA 23:13 → MSY 05:49 +1AS 490	10h 11m	100%	79%
United Details →	SFO 12:15 → IAH 18:27UA 1387	3h 48m Houston	IAH 22:15 → MSY 23:26UA 2474	9h 11m	100%	77%
United Details →	SFO 10:50 → IAH 16:52UA 1259	3h 28m Houston	IAH 20:20 → MSY 21:52UA 2161	9h 02m	100%	75%
American Details →	SFO 08:43 → MIA 17:13AA 369	3h 59m Miami	MIA 21:12 → MSY 22:32AA 329	11h 49m	96%	74%
United Details →	SFO 08:55 → IAH 15:07UA 2498	3h 25m Houston	IAH 18:32 → MSY 19:51UA 2140	8h 56m	99%	73%
United Details →	SFO 10:40 → DEN 14:23UA 1604	3h 22m Denver	DEN 17:45 → MSY 21:34UA 1541	8h 54m	100%	73%
Delta Details →	SFO 14:30 → LAX 15:56DL 2725	2h 04m Los Angeles	LAX 18:00 → MSY 23:46DL 2154	7h 16m	98%	72%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	SFO 12:30 → SAN 14:10WN 3525	1h 05m San Diego	SAN 15:15 → MSY 21:13WN 3339	6h 43m	67%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON