Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:36 pm at San Francisco); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 31%, against 16% on a calm day. Safest: AS 2083 at 18:02, 31%.

Nonstops today


AS 2083 Alaska flown by Horizon Flight history →	SFO 18:02	PAE 20:14	31%	11%	0.8%	46%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Everett on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	SFO 15:48 → SNA 17:26AS 3494 · flown by SkyWest	2h 02m Santa Ana	SNA 19:28 → PAE 22:23AS 2116 · flown by Horizon	6h 35m	95%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON