tailodds FORECAST
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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: United via O'Hare, leaving 00:50, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching West Palm Beach on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach West Palm Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (West Palm Beach is 3 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SFO 00:50 → ORD 07:16UA 1850 3h 34m Chicago ORD 10:50 → PBI 14:51UA 2342 11h 01m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → SFO 11:38 → ATL 19:27DL 693 3h 32m Atlanta ATL 22:59 → PBI 00:51 +1DL 1065 10h 13m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → SFO 07:50 → ATL 15:32DL 640 3h 27m Atlanta ATL 18:59 → PBI 20:51DL 1058 10h 01m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → SFO 06:00 → ATL 13:44DL 570 1h 43m Atlanta ATL 15:27 → PBI 17:22DL 1458 8h 22m 98% 81%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → IAH 10:55UA 2168 1h 30m Houston IAH 12:25 → PBI 15:56UA 1345 7h 56m 98% 75%
AmericanDetails → SFO 00:24 → DFW 05:53AA 2111 3h 37m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:30 → PBI 13:21AA 2276 9h 57m 100% 75%
AmericanDetails → SFO 06:02 → ORD 12:29AA 2614 1h 22m Chicago ORD 13:51 → PBI 18:03AA 2275 9h 01m 96% 74%
UnitedDetails → SFO 08:15 → EWR 16:53UA 435 3h 26m Newark EWR 20:19 → PBI 23:28UA 2650 12h 13m 97% 73%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON