Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 2265 at 08:22 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–23%.

Safest bet that day UA 2265 SFO 08:22 → PDX 10:20 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AS 235 SFO 12:08 → PDX 13:50 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 2265 United Flight history →	SFO 08:22	PDX 10:20	8%	3%	0.5%	91%
AS 1410 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 07:20	PDX 09:02	9%	2%	0.6%	93%
UA 5777 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 08:28	PDX 10:32	15%	6%	0.6%	69%
AS 1867 Alaska	SFO 09:01	PDX 10:50	18%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 2624 United	SFO 10:26	PDX 12:20	19%	7%	0.5%	no record
UA 2413 United Flight history →	SFO 20:50	PDX 22:48	19%	8%	0.5%	56%
UA 2384 United Flight history →	SFO 22:52	PDX 00:50	20%	8%	0.6%	75%
UA 1301 United Flight history →	SFO 10:15	PDX 12:08	20%	6%	0.5%	57%
UA 2262 United Flight history →	SFO 18:56	PDX 20:54	20%	7%	0.5%	82%
UA 2851 United Flight history →	SFO 12:43	PDX 14:42	21%	6%	0.6%	88%
UA 1812 United Flight history →	SFO 16:51	PDX 18:46	21%	8%	0.6%	74%
AS 525 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 18:46	PDX 20:31	23%	5%	0.6%	83%
AS 1302 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 15:02	PDX 16:47	27%	5%	0.6%	76%
AS 235 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 12:08	PDX 13:50	31%	4%	0.6%	62%
AS 2023 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SFO 22:08	PDX 23:52	46%	31%	6.9%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON