Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 18 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 4145 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–39%.

Safest bet that day WN 4145 SFO 05:30 → PHX 07:30 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest F9 2638 SFO 13:22 → PHX 15:30 · 46% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Against a calm day 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4145 Southwest Flight history →	SFO 05:30	PHX 07:30	4%	1%	0.6%	94%
WN 4663 Southwest	SFO 06:45	PHX 08:45	7%	1%	0.6%	no record
OO 6306 SkyWest	SFO 05:46	PHX 07:52	8%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 6404 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 05:50	PHX 08:01	9%	4%	0.7%	91%
UA 2374 United Flight history →	SFO 08:04	PHX 10:10	13%	3%	0.6%	92%
UA 2347 United Flight history →	SFO 19:25	PHX 21:39	15%	7%	0.6%	83%
AA 2414 American Flight history →	SFO 08:15	PHX 10:22	18%	4%	0.7%	84%
UA 233 United Flight history →	SFO 21:21	PHX 23:30	18%	8%	0.6%	58%
OO 5460 SkyWest	SFO 12:40	PHX 15:01	22%	8%	0.6%	no record
UA 574 United Flight history →	SFO 16:25	PHX 18:39	23%	9%	0.6%	73%
AA 2334 American	SFO 12:24	PHX 14:34	27%	8%	0.7%	no record
AA 2548 American Flight history →	SFO 12:18	PHX 14:29	33%	9%	0.7%	52%
WN 3783 Southwest	SFO 12:20	PHX 14:20	33%	6%	0.6%	no record
AA 2544 American Flight history →	SFO 18:55	PHX 21:00	35%	9%	0.7%	57%
AA 1321 American Flight history →	SFO 15:52	PHX 18:04	37%	9%	0.7%	50%
WN 4237 Southwest Flight history →	SFO 13:35	PHX 15:45	39%	8%	0.5%	18%
WN 3651 Southwest Flight history →	SFO 18:45	PHX 21:05	39%	9%	0.5%	41%
F9 2638 Frontier Flight history →	SFO 13:22	PHX 15:30	46%	14%	1.3%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON