Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:57 pm at San Francisco); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, UA 1341 at 21:40, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


UA 1341 United	SFO 21:40	PIT 05:49	17%	5%	0.2%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pittsburgh on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Pittsburgh is 3 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	SFO 17:39 → SEA 19:39AS 1340	2h 58m Seattle	SEA 22:37 → PIT 06:10 +1AS 77	9h 31m	97%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON