Today: UA 4717 at 09:15 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22–24%.

Safest bet today UA 4717 SFO 09:15 → PSC 11:27 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest OO 5214 SFO 10:29 → PSC 12:36 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 4717 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 09:15	PSC 11:27	11%	4%	0.4%	100%worse than usual
UA 6044 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 22:40	PSC 00:50	22%	8%	0.6%	45%
OO 5214 SkyWest	SFO 10:29	PSC 12:36	24%	7%	0.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON