Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Today looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 23–33% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today UA 2153 SFO 10:28 → RDM 12:12 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AS 3361 SFO 16:13 → RDM 17:53 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Against a calm day 29% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 27% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2153 United Flight history →	SFO 10:28	RDM 12:12	23%	5%	0.7%	91%worse than usual
UA 5425 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 17:05	RDM 18:56	27%	9%	0.8%	78%
UA 2418 United	SFO 16:22	RDM 17:58	28%	7%	0.7%	no record
UA 5880 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 13:02	RDM 14:51	28%	9%	0.8%	78%
UA 1809 United Flight history →	SFO 21:18	RDM 22:59	30%	7%	0.6%	64%
OO 3065 SkyWest	SFO 15:54	RDM 17:29	33%	9%	0.8%	no record
AS 3361 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 16:13	RDM 17:53	33%	9%	0.8%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON